The InterDependent

In the coming months, the African continent's two coasts could face humanitarian crises, stretching aid delivery systems and donor funds, aid groups warn.

Yesterday in Rome, leaders of UN and government development agencies met to try and prevent what could quickly become a crisis in the Sahel region of West Africa. Rains have come too late, and security is increasingly patchy across the desert that touches Chad, Niger, Mali, Mauritania, Burkina Faso, Senegal, Gambia, Cameroon and northern Nigeria. Food stocks are dwindling, and there's no relief from the resource squeeze in sight. The UN says 23 million people could be affected.

"The needs of the millions affected by drought in the Sahel are enormous," warned World Food Program executive director Josette Sheeran in announcing the meeting. "Agencies are gearing up their response in an effort to prevent a crisis from becoming a disaster."

Meanwhile, across the continent, in the Horn of Africa, the news is better-but only tentatively so. A famine declared in Somalia in the summer of 2011 officially came to an end February 3. But humanitarians in the region warn it may only be a temporary respite if investments aren't made now to shore up the population's resilience. The most recent report from the UN mission in Somalia notes, "2.34 million people-nearly a third of the population-remain in crisis, unable to meet essential food and non-food needs." Regardless of whether it's still called a famine, the crisis remains the largest humanitarian operation in the world.

Given the scale of the crisis, the funds needed to avert the worst outcomes are relatively little-but they may still prove hard to raise. The UN's annual appeal asked for $1.5 billion for Somalia's operation. Countries such as Niger and Chad are hoping to raise $229 million and $455 million, respectively.

Speaking in Abu Dhabi on Sunday at a conference of New York University's Center for Technology and Economic Development, the African Union representative for Somalia, Former Ghanaian President Jerry Rawlings, made a passionate appeal: "We have a responsibility as businessmen and chosen leaders of our countries to champion the cause of global equality in food distribution.

"Across the Horn of Africa, 9.5 million people still need help. Famine is expected to return to the region if substantial aid cannot be raised in time."

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Warnings of food crisis inevitably recall memories of 2010, when prices rose dramatically, in line with steep hikes in the prices of commodities such as oil and gas. This time, however, the situation looks different: Global food prices are falling, and the World Bank expects the trend to continue into 2012.

Why a crisis then? Humanitarian agencies in the Sahel say that situation is less about prices than supply. It's not that the poorest can't afford to buy; there simply aren't food supplies in some of the affected regions. The harvest brought in 25 percent less than 2010, Oxfam told the AFP in Mauritania. Now, UN agencies are looking at options for airlifting supplies to some affected areas, moving grain from warehouses in Ghana.

But there is another reason that crisis may be looming: Both in the Sahel and the Horn of Africa, there are few institutional safety nets to prevent trouble from quickly escalating into crisis.

This is particularly true in Somalia, a country that has lurched from crisis to crisis for two decades. Food distribution systems have been ruptured by years of war; parts of the country are inaccessible for security reasons. But even more fundamentally, the turmoil has made it impossible for farmers to invest and build sustainable livelihoods. Whole sections of the country-where 1.8 million people live-are still inaccessible to aid workers, since the Islamist militant group Al Shabab banned UN agencies' work there in November.

During the recent lull in Somalia's famine, the UN is hoping to help get people back home and cultivating the land. "We need to use this temporary relief from the worst of the crisis to focus our efforts on life‐saving assistance, while building up people's ability to cope with future drought-and thereby reduce their dependence on aid," UN Humanitarian coordinator Mark Bowden announced in a release on February 3. "Recovery is only possible after August if the rains are good and other external factors, such as conflict, do not hamper the progress made so far."

Countries such as Mali and Niger, too, are suffering from new bouts of insecurity. Rebels from the Tuareg ethnic group there have cut off portions of the country to aid workers, who fear kidnappings or attacks on supplies.

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For now, humanitarians are trapped in something of a chicken-and-egg problem: Short-term aid is vital to halting the march of food crises. Yet at times, immediate attention (and funding) can come at the cost of building longer-term solutions. Donors' budgets are limited, and crises are an easier sell than fixing systems that have long been broken.

For now, the focus is on immediate needs. Short of that, argues Rawlings, it's impossible to build. "Aid alone does not provide a guarantee of long-term and sustainable solutions for the region, and Somalia especially," he told audiences in Abu Dhabi.

"What is clear, however, is that the absence of short-term aid, to halt and turn this humanitarian crisis around, will frustrate attention of longer term solutions that will insure food security and prosperity for millions in the region."