The InterDependent

Over the past few weeks, South Sudan has faced the biggest test yet since it declared independence from the north last summer. Just months after this oil-rich, ethnically diverse nation celebrated its secession from an often-oppressive Khartoum government, large-scale violence has broken out between rival ethnic groups. In Jonglei, the largest state in South Sudan, several tit-for-tat attacks have left 60,000 people in need of help. The attacks have taken place been between the Murle and Lou Nuer tribes and have been sparked by cattle rustling. No reliable death toll has been released for all the attacks, but the New York Times reported that as many as 3,000 men, women, and children were killed in just one recent attack in the town of Pibor.

A wide view of the historic Independence Ceremony of the Republic of South Sudan. UN Photo/Eskinder Debebe

Many attacks have featured the burning of entire villages, the destruction of granaries, the theft of tens of thousands of cows, and the methodical killing of families. At least one aid group working in the region, Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF), was reported to have been targeted in a raid on a hospital that the group operated. The attacks appear to have been premeditated. “We have decided to invade Murleland and wipe out the entire Murle tribe off the face of the earth,” said a member of the Nuer tribe in a public statement.

Yet for South Sudan, this conflict isn't just a trial—it's a bellwether of how prepared the country is to institute the rule of law within its own territory. Internal conflict raises questions about whether this nascent government can bring perpetrators to justice, ensure that international and humanitarian laws are applied, and protect its citizens from harm regardless of their ethnicity or location. It also demonstrates how important forming a cohesive national identity is to the country’s stability. Until independence, southerners have defined their nation mostly by their opposition to the north. Now, southerners will have to unite around the goal of building a stronger country.

The recent violence also serves as a test for the United States and the United Nations, both of which have worked hard to build the governing capacity of the world's newest country. Washington was the key broker behind the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) that led to the eventual independence of the south; its credibility is on the line if South Sudan falls into chaos. A stable South Sudan, by contrast, could boost the UN and its peacekeeping efforts at a time when many in Washington and on the U.S. campaign trail are griping about the alleged ineffectiveness of the UN.

***

Tribal conflicts have historically been a part of life in Jonglei, but over the last several years, they were subdued as communities united against a common northern enemy, Khartoum, during the country's long struggle for independence. As a report from the United States Institute of Peace put it, "the main glue that binds the country’s multiple ethnicities together is the history of their struggle for freedom and collective opposition to the north.”

Now that the South is independent, however, its internal differences have been laid bare. The current bout of violence began in late December. The Christian Science Monitor reported that 6,000 to 8,000 youth from the Lou Nuer tribe, referred to as the white army because of the pale ash they smear on their skin, marched into Murle tribal lands.

Cattle have been central to the ongoing disputes. A bulletin from the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) reported that between 50,000 and 80,000 cattle have been seized in the violence. The animals represent both wealth and security as a food source in drier seasons, explains a recent report by the International Crisis Group (ICG).Tribes have long stolen each other's cattle or fought over access to land and water, but ICG argues that “the war-era proliferation of small arms has changed the nature of cattle rustling, an act historically carried out with sticks and spears.”

***

Unfortunately, the trouble has come at a time when this nascent state is ill-equipped to manage its internal fractures. After decades of civil war, South Sudan is one of the poorest countries in the world, with few roads existing outside the capital city of Juba. The recent conflict is largely outside the central government's reach, making it harder to intervene and obtain an accurate count of the dead. So far, the government’s response has been to send additional federal troops to the area and begin work toward disarmament and reconciliation.

Meanwhile, UN agencies have stepped in as tens of thousands of refugees have fled the violence. Charity Tooze, a senior communications officer for the Washington, DC, Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), says the agency is airlifting supplies to the affected areas, including tents, kitchen sets, blankets, water cans, and mosquito nets. There is no accurate count of refugees, Tooze explained, because “the numbers are always shifting.”

The needs are daunting: The World Food Programme (WFP) and World Health Organization (WHO) have also airlifted food and medical supplies into the area. More aid, including soap, jerry cans, blankets, and plastic sheeting from the International Organization for Migration (IOM) is expected to arrive soon. Additional peacekeepers serving with the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) have also been deployed to the area to support the efforts of the government to restore calm.

The remoteness of the affected areas is hampering some relief efforts, however. OCHA has appealed for heavy airlift capacity to move humanitarian materials into the area. The Security Council also addressed this in a recent statement expressing “concern with UNMISS’ shortfall of operational air transport assets,” which “seriously impacts its ability to carry out its mandate.” The Secretary-General has been forced to beg countries for assistance. "We were denied the use of critical resources—in particular helicopters that would have given us mobility to bring all the UN peacekeepers where there are no roads," said Ban Ki-Moon, adding, “With limited resources, we tried our best."

***

Officials at the UN, speaking on background because of the political sensitivity of the violence, maintain that while these clashes are alarming, for now they do not appear likely to draw in other large tribes such as the Dinka. As such, they do not immediately threaten the stability of the entire country. Still, UN officials do worry that the attacks could cause ripple effects in different communities, given the large-scale displacement of individuals.

Amid the violence and the humanitarian crises, some analysts have accused the government in Khartoum of being behind the violence. “All the firearms and other type of guns you see at the hands of both Murle and Lou Nuer in Jonglei were deliberately supplied by the Sudanese government in Khartoum to these tribes,” claimed South Sudan Colonel Phillip Aguer, speaking with the Sudan Tribune.

“Reliable sources tell me they have been providing material support,” said David Phillips, director of the program on peace-building and rights at Columbia University's Institute for the Study of Human Rights, in a phone interview. “[Khartoum] gains from marginalizing the Juba government.” Officials at the UN, however, caution that they have not seen hard evidence of this.

***

These new crises are just the latest in a growing list of concerns in now-fractured Sudan. Juba and Khartoum have failed to agree on how much the south should pay to transport its daily production of 350,000 barrels of oil to the port of Sudan for export. South Sudan has accused the northern government of stopping 3.4 million barrels of its oil exports, building a pipeline to re-route its oil, and diverting over half a million barrels to Sudan's refineries.

Humanitarian crises are also brewing on the northern side of the new international border. U.S. special envoy to Sudan Princeton Lyman recently worried out loud that almost half a million people in the states of Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile may soon face famine. The U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Susan Rice, has also addressed Khartoum’s refusal to allow aid groups access to the stricken areas and stated that the Security Council may be forced to take action.

In the South, expectations after independence are riding high, and the cash-strapped government is struggling to deliver. Born into poverty and confrontation, South Sudan cannot be expected to make its next steps toward development alone. As the Secretary-General has alluded, far more support from the international community is needed to ensure stability. The events of recent months offer a sense of just how high the stakes are for getting Sudan right.