The InterDependent

On November 10, the Sudanese military bombed a refugee camp in the newly-separated state of Southern Sudan. Just four months after the two countries split, the strikes-which hit the Yida refugee camp that houses some 20,000 people-were the most visible signs yet of the rising tension between Khartoum and the nascent government in Juba. They aren't the first indications however; reports of attacks on civilians by the Sudanese army have been coming in since June. The violence has been particularly striking in the northern states of Blue Nile and South Kordofan, where the UN High Commission for Refugees says that 28,700 people have been displaced in the last two months.

Analysts never expected the secession of Southern Sudan to pass smoothly in Khartoum. Since a peace agreement was signed half a decade ago the two sides have wrangled over citizenship, natural resources, economic cooperation, grazing rights and security. But what few saw coming was the location where those tensions would play out. Most anticipated that Abyei-a disputed oil-rich territory along the border-would be at the center of any crises. As a result, the international community worked to pre-empt any such fighting, for example by authorizing an interim U.N. peacekeeping force to the location.

The tactic worked; Abyei has been relatively quiet so far. Unfortunately, however, the violence has simply gone elsewhere-to places where the United Nations can do little to stop it. Now as civilians are once again in danger, the tools to aid them are strikingly few.

THE UN INTERVENES TO CALM TENSIONS

The tensions now so vividly on display trace back to a decades-long civil war between Sudan and Southern Sudan, eventually ended in 2005 with a U.S.-negotiated ceasefire. The deal paved a way for Southern Sudanese independence, which its citizens voted to pursue in January 2011. Khartoum accepted the secession begrudgingly, and has since built up military capabilities along the border.

Amid this context, it's easy to understand why Abyei was the focus of so much concern. The contested region lacks clearly delineated boundaries and is home to supporters of both the northern and southern governments. Abyei also sits on more than a quarter of Sudan's oil output and is home to a strategically important pipeline. When tensions rose between the north and south in 2007 and 2008, violence often broke out in Abyei. In all, 25,000 civilians were displaced in these two years. And as recently as May 2011, 5,000 northern troops attacked the area in a response to an ambush conducted by southern forces.

International engagement to try and quell the strife began in 2004, when an international commission was set up in hopes of delineating the border and the matter was referred to the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague. When Southern Sudan voted for independence in January, Abyei was scheduled to hold a similar referendum to determine which state it would belong to, but the election was postponed over disagreements on who was eligible to vote.

Mindful that this region could easily erupt into crisis again now that the two Sudans have split, the UN Security Council authorized the creation of the United Nations Interim Security Force for Abyei (UNISFA) in June, which currently consists of 1,842 personnel-just under half its authorized 4,200 troops. The force has been charged with ensuring the withdrawal of armed combatants from both the north and south, and protecting civilians and humanitarian workers.

Within the last few months, the presence of peacekeepers, provided by Ethiopia, has kept Abyei relatively calm. The north has yet to fully withdrawal its troops, promising to do so until the full Ethiopian force is deployed.

THE VIOLENCE SPREADS

Other troubled regions of Sudan, which lack this sort of international engagement, have recently slipped into violence, particularly Blue Nile and Southern Kordofan states.

Like Abyei, the citizens of Blue Nile and South Kordofan were supposed to have a role in choosing their status once Sudan split. The mechanism planned was popular consultation, intended to ascertain whether or not the majority in each state was content with the status quo or wanted to renegotiate the peace agreement. In practice, this meant that the two northern states could have sought to govern themselves autonomously from the north. Both states host rebels who fought along with South Sudan in the civil war. And while those southern fighters eventually became the new governing party of a new state, the rebels in the north were left with next to nothing.

"South Sudan has now become a separate country, but a lot of those lingering issues haven't been addressed," said Adam Day, a political affair's office from the Sudan Integrated Operational Team in the United Nations Department of Peacekeeping Operations on August 18th in a call with the United Nations Association of the United States.

The simmering conflict erupted anew in June, just a month before the south formerly declared independence, when the Sudanese army moved to disarm Nuba troops (which had in the past supported southern rebels) in South Kordofan in an attempt to assert its authority within the newly defined territory.

Analysts speculate that Khartoum feared the consultations would eventually result in these regions seeking autonomy. Rather than risk losing control over another region, Khartoum pre-emptively attacked. "After 99.7 percent of South Sudanese voted for independence [achieved] last summer Bashir sought retribution by turning on the Nuba Mountain allies [the area of the country containing both Blue Nile and South Kordofan]," David Phillips, director of the program on peace-building and rights at Columbia University's Institute for the Study of Human Rights wrote on October 11 in the Sudan Tribune.

Since early June, the army of Sudan and allied militias have conducted house to house raids, supported widespread looting, and carried out repeated aerial bombings in the state, resulting in the displacement of 200,000 civilians. The conflict recently spread from South Kordofan into neighboring Blue Nile, as 29,000 displaced spilled into neighboring Ethiopia. In Blue Nile as in South Kordofan, there are allegations of a sustained, indiscriminate bombing campaign against civilians.

The scale of the resulting humanitarian crisis in both states was massive. This month, the Enough Project, a program of the Center for American Progress seeking to end genocide and crimes against humanity, conducted interviews with some of the Sudanese refugees who have sought safety across the Ethiopian border. Their testimonies include allegations that government forces have been targeting, killing, and raping civilians. Some refugees also echoed suspicions the recent offensives were the result of the popular consultations which may have been creating increased autonomy for the region.

As the crisis spreads, new satellite imagery released on September 22nd by the Satellite Sentinel Project shows that Sudan has increased the size and capacity of military bases in Blue Nile. Violence has also spilled over onto the Southern side of the border, with the aerial attack in Unity state on November 10.

ATTEMPTS FOR CALM FALL FLAT

Unfortunately, the international community has so far been able to do little stop this violence. The Khartoum government has expelled international aid agencies from Southern Kordofan and Blue Nile states, making it near impossible to reach the civilians most affected.

Diplomatic efforts have also come to naught. Many UN bodies and high level officials such as Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon and High Commissioner for Human Rights Navi Pillay have called for inquiries and issued condemning statements. Because the UN operates on a system of consent in regards to internal conflicts however, it has limited capacity to force its will on member states. No such political will exists in the current circumstance.

"There was no positive impact to the calls by the UN to stop violence in these two areas because there was no access to these areas," Omer Ismail, senior policy advisor at the Enough Project, said by email. "The call by these high level officials fell on deaf ears." President Barack Obama recently extended sanctions on Sudan as a response to the fighting in the border states, but with little effect so far.

Phillips of Columbia University suggests in his October 11 article that one way forward could be dialogue between pro-democracy Sudanese and the Khartoum government. Several rebel groups in South Kordofan and Blue Nile recently signed a pact of allegiance with rebels in Darfur, stating they would work together for a more democratic Sudan. If that fails, Phillips writes, "More coercive diplomacy - in the form of political and economic sanctions, safe areas, and no-fly zones - should be considered against Khartoum's state-sponsored terror."

Yet even such drastic measures might only be a partial solution, argues Ismail of Enough. "[A no-fly zone] is not going to ‘end‘ the humanitarian crisis," he wrote, "but it will certainly help in decreasing the level of violence and lessen the misery for the civilians in these affected areas."

Still, politically, a no fly zone could prove near impossible to secure. The international community is caught up in a host of other crises, with little appetite or bandwidth to take on another military confrontation. "There is only so much that the international community can handle at one time," Phillips said in a phone interview.

LESSONS IN A COMPLEX CONFLICT

While a solution to the myriad conflicts in Sudan may be nowhere in sight, their interconnectedness is readily apparent. Connections exist between the various rebel groups, tactics by the government are roughly the same, and grievances in the country's many and diverse regions are all but completely identical.

Any proposed solution may therefore need to focus less on regions, such as Abyei, and instead turn to the issues underlying this conflict. "Approaches to Sudan's challenges-by both Sudanese and the international community-have been fragmented and regionally focused rather than national in scope," argues a recent report from the U.S. Institute for Peace. This then brings attention to areas in the country's periphery rather than to core governance issues, says the report.

Short of this kind of engagement, conflict in Sudan may again erupt into violence, just as South Kordofan and Blue Nile are doing now.